2025 Cosmetics Industry Special Report：The Convergence of Chinese Guofeng Makeup Trends and Professional Aesthetics Ignites Eastern Beauty

2025 Cosmetics Industry Special Report:

The Convergence of Chinese Guofeng Makeup Trends and Professional Aesthetics Ignites Eastern Beauty

1. Industry Overview: Global & Chinese Cosmetics Markets Continue to Expand, with Strong Momentum for Domestic Brands

1.1 Market Potential: Continued Market Growth and Opportunities in Niche Segments

The global beauty and skincare market continues to grow, with the color cosmetics market experiencing significant expansion. In 2023, the global beauty and skincare market reached $332.6 billion (YoY +8%), and the overall market size is expected to exceed $400 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.8% from 2023 to 2026.  After a decline in 2020, the global color cosmetics market achieved a CAGR of 7% from 2021 to 2023, reaching $73.8 billion in 2023.  Geographically, Asia-Pacific and North America held the largest market shares in 2023 at 28.9% and 30.5%, respectively.  The Asia-Pacific region's share is projected to further increase, reaching 31.2% by 2028, making it the largest market for color cosmetics.

The Chinese cosmetics market is experiencing rapid growth, with skincare and color cosmetics accounting for approximately 80% and 20% of the market, respectively.  According to Frost & Sullivan, the overall Chinese cosmetics market size reached RMB 579.8 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach RMB 876.3 billion by 2028, representing a CAGR of 8.6% from 2023 to 2028.  Skincare accounts for approximately 80% of this market. Skincare growth outpaced color cosmetics from 2018 to 2023; however, the projected CAGR for skincare and color cosmetics from 2023 to 2028 are 8.7% and 8.4%, respectively.

The Chinese high-end cosmetics market is growing faster than the overall market, with color cosmetics experiencing more rapid premiumization.  Frost & Sullivan data indicates that from 2018 to 2023, the CAGR for the high-end cosmetics and high-end color cosmetics segments were 7.8% and 6.4%, respectively, exceeding the mass market's 7.5% and 3.6%.  In 2023, the market size reached RMB 194.2 billion and RMB 47.1 billion, respectively.  The projected CAGRs for the next five years are 9.9% and 10.8%, respectively.  In terms of market share, the high-end segment accounted for 40% of the color cosmetics market in 2023, higher than the 32% share in the skincare market.  By 2028, this is projected to reach 45% and 33%, respectively.  According to Frost & Sullivan, the high-end color cosmetics market share in China was 40% in 2023.  In comparison, Euromonitor data shows that the high-end color cosmetics market share in the US, Japan, and South Korea was 59%, 53%, and 49%, respectively, indicating room for further growth in China.  The faster premiumization of color cosmetics is attributed to the relatively narrow price range of the overall market.

Within the color cosmetics sector, face makeup holds the largest and most stable market share, facilitating repeat purchases. Color cosmetics are primarily categorized into face, eye, and lip makeup.  Face makeup products, including primers/isolators, foundations, blushes, concealers, contouring products, and setting powders, offer skin correction and tone adjustment.  Eye makeup includes eyeshadows, eyeliners, mascaras, and eyebrow pencils.  Lip makeup encompasses lip glosses, lipsticks, lip muds, and lip pencils.  The suitability of face makeup varies depending on skin moisture, sensitivity, tone, and imperfections.  Consumers demand higher quality textures and stricter standards for formulations and manufacturing processes, leading to greater brand loyalty once a suitable product is found. Compared to eye and lip products, face makeup is less susceptible to market trends, resulting in longer product lifecycles and higher repeat purchase rates.  According to Frost & Sullivan, the face makeup market grew from RMB 43.5 billion to RMB 57.4 billion from 2018 to 2023, with a CAGR of 5.7%, exceeding the 5% and 3% CAGRs of lip and eye makeup, respectively.  The market share of face makeup increased from 47% in 2018 to 49% in 2023 and is projected to reach 52% of the overall color cosmetics market by 2028.

1.2 Competitive Landscape: International Brands Dominate, Domestic Brands Actively Breaking Through

Color Cosmetics vs. Skincare:  In contrast to the slowly increasing concentration in the skincare market, the concentration in the Chinese color cosmetics market shows a trend of initial increase followed by decline. Skincare products emphasize functional attributes.  Since 2018, market concentration has steadily increased due to improvements in the supply and demand structure and the rise of functional skincare products.  However, color cosmetics are more strongly influenced by fashion trends. From 2018 to 2021, domestic brands like Huaxizi and Perfect Diary leveraged popular color trends and the benefits of livestreaming e-commerce to become leading brands, boosting overall market concentration.  However, the rapid change in color trends and relatively low consumer brand loyalty make it challenging for brands to consistently capture these trends.  This led to a structural decline in market share after 2022.  Maybelline held the leading market share before 2018, followed by Dior in 2019, and Huaxizi/YSL in 2021/2022/2023.

Domestic vs. International Brands:  Compared to developed countries, there is significant room for improvement in the market share of domestic color cosmetics brands in China. From 2017 to 2022, new domestic brands such as Huaxizi and Perfect Diary benefited from supply chain advantages and livestreaming e-commerce, showcasing strengths in online channel operation and content marketing, resulting in a continuous increase in market share.  However, limitations in brand heritage and the ability to consistently create best-selling products have led to a slowdown in growth since 2022. Meanwhile, professional makeup artist brands like Cai Tang and Mao Geping experienced rapid growth due to founder IP influence and the rise of Guochao (national trend) culture, steadily increasing their market share.

High-End vs. Mass Market:  Premiumization is a major trend in color cosmetics, with international brands holding a dominant position.  Euromonitor data shows that among the top 30 color cosmetics brands, foreign high-end brands (YSL, Dior, Lancôme, etc.) and domestic high-end brands (Mao Geping) are experiencing increasing market share. Mao Geping is the only domestic brand in China's high-end color cosmetics market.  The market share of domestic mass-market brands increased from 2017 to 2021 but has declined in recent years.  The market share of overseas mass-market brands has also shown an overall decline.

In the high-end market, concentration is high, with international brands dominating.  According to Frost & Sullivan, the top five color cosmetics groups held 55.4% of the Chinese market share in 2023, while the top ten held 62.5%. Nine of the top ten groups were international brands, with Mao Geping Group being the only Chinese company (ranked 7th).  Among brands, the top five held 32% of market share in 2023, and the top ten held 44.2%.  Mao Geping held a 1.8% market share in 2023, ranking 12th and being the only domestic brand among the top fifteen.

Currently, the market ceiling for single color cosmetic brands in China is lower than that of skincare brands, with foreign brands in the leading positions.  According to Euromonitor, the largest skincare brand in China in 2023, L'Oréal, had retail sales of RMB 17.4 billion, compared to RMB 4 billion for the largest color cosmetics brand, YSL.  The difference in scale is primarily due to lower consumer awareness and frequency of makeup use in China, as well as the need for greater market penetration.  It is anticipated that the Chinese color cosmetics market will continue to evolve, following a similar pattern to the skincare market, with increasing concentration and rising market share for domestic brands.

2. Professional Makeup: IP Building Professional Brands and Leading Industry Fashion Trends

2.1 Brand Development: Founders Leading Professional Aesthetics, Shaping Unique Brand DNA

Based on their founding backgrounds, color cosmetics brands can be categorized into four types: professional makeup artist brands, influencer/celebrity brands, luxury brands, and others.

(1) Professional Makeup Artist Brands: Founded by makeup artists, often bearing their names, these brands emphasize high-quality and practical products, often with longer lifecycles.  Examples include MAC, known for its extensive color range and professional image, and Bobbi Brown, emphasizing natural makeup looks.

(2) Influencer/Celebrity Brands: Founded by influencers or celebrities with large social media followings, these brands rose with the development of social media platforms. Examples include Fenty and Kylie.

(3) Luxury Brands: These are color cosmetic lines developed by luxury brands or licensed to cosmetics groups.  They maintain the high-end brand image of the parent company, such as Chanel, Armani, and Givenchy.

(4) Other Brands: This category includes skincare brands expanding into color cosmetics and brands founded by non-makeup artists, such as Estée Lauder and Clinique.

Professional makeup brands often leverage the high professional standards and reputation of their founders to create unique brand and product identities based on accumulated cosmetic theory and innovation.  Some founders have introduced groundbreaking makeup theories, driving product innovation. Max Factor, considered the father of modern makeup, developed color harmony theory and created the first portable foundation, Pan-Cake. Bobbi Brown pioneered the concept of natural makeup and launched a line of natural brown-toned lipsticks. Shu Uemura's founder, Shu Uemura, gained inspiration from his experience working with Hollywood stars and created a cleansing oil that combines makeup removal and cleansing in 1967.  This cleansing oil became a flagship product, selling one bottle every six seconds globally in 2020.  Shu Uemura also pioneered the angled eyebrow pencil and foundation brush, which remain bestsellers.  Professional makeup artists with strong professional skills and a business mindset who aim to build their own brands are rare and valuable.  In China, Mao Geping is an example of a brand built on its founder's unique light and shadow aesthetic and high standing in the industry.  Mao Geping's expertise in dramatic stage makeup, combined with oil painting techniques and fashion elements, created a unique "Oriental light and shadow" aesthetic system emphasizing three-dimensional facial contours and natural, sophisticated appearance. This philosophy is reflected in their high-lighting, contouring, and base makeup products.

2.2 Marketing: Rare Founder IP Drives Traffic, Enabling High-Quality Brand Growth

Makeup artist founders' unique IP naturally drives traffic, improving efficiency and cost-effectiveness.  Professional expertise combined with social media builds trust. Consumers who admire and trust a makeup artist are more likely to trust and buy the products they recommend. Makeup artists' expertise is leveraged through social media platforms. High-quality content, including tutorials, product reviews, and celebrity collaborations, helps consumers make informed decisions and builds brand trust.

International Examples: Charlotte Tilbury and Pat McGrath Labs exemplify this strategy:

(1) Charlotte Tilbury:  Having served as the creative director for Tom Ford, Helena Rubinstein, and Chanel, Charlotte Tilbury launched her eponymous brand in 2013.  Through high-end positioning and luxurious, vintage aesthetics, she built a strong brand identity and assets.  Her work on platforms like YouTube and Instagram showcases high aesthetic value and brand consistency, using a "Hollywood rose gold" color scheme to emphasize elegance and luxury.  She has over 7 million followers.  Extensive celebrity endorsements helped expand the business to 76 countries globally.  In 2023, CT brand turnover reached RMB 4.152 billion (YoY +44.5%).  Puig acquired a majority stake in CT in 2020 and is expected to acquire full ownership by early 2031.

(2) Pat McGrath Labs: Founder Pat McGrath has nearly 30 years of experience as a makeup artist, creating runway looks for top luxury brands.  She was named the world's most influential makeup artist by Vogue.  In 2015, she launched her brand, emphasizing design and visual impact, infusing her aesthetic vision into the brand. From its inception, it prioritized online community building.  Its first metallic eyeshadow palette, "Gold 001," sold out in under six minutes. Pat McGrath has 4.7 million Instagram followers.  Beyond makeup looks, she shares inspirational imagery reflecting her personal style.  The hashtag #PatMcGrathLabs boasts over 276,000 posts.

Domestic Examples: Mao Geping and Cai Tang demonstrate the impact of founder IP on brand building, adopting different strategies based on brand identity.  By the end of 2024, Mao Geping had posted 16 videos on Bilibili, primarily sharing makeup techniques and analyses.  Cai Tang targets a younger audience with content reflecting current trends.  As of December 2024, Mao Geping had accumulated 1.026 million and 908,000 followers on Weibo and Bilibili, respectively, exceeding the brand's follower count.  Tang Yi (founder of Cai Tang) also has significantly more followers than the Cai Tang brand itself.

Mao Geping leveraged social media to build both personal and brand recognition.  A 20-year-old makeup video went viral on Bilibili in 2016.  In 2019, his "head-changing" makeover of internet personality "Deep Night Teacher Xu" caused a surge in Baidu search index for "Mao Geping."  His presence on platforms like Bilibili, featuring makeup tutorials and "head-changing" techniques, further amplified brand recognition.  As of H1 2024, interactions on Weibo and Douyin related to Mr. Mao and MAOGEPING exceeded 6 billion and 4.8 billion, respectively.

Mao Geping's content strategy reinforces brand positioning, a crucial element in building a strong brand from a strong IP.  Collaborations with powerful IPs like the Palace Museum, creating the "Qi Yun Dong Fang" (Breath of the Orient) series, integrated cultural heritage and classical Eastern aesthetics into the products. The series has reached its fifth iteration and become a phenomenal cultural IP.  High-profile events like participation in China Fashion Week, featuring top models and celebrities, emphasize high-end brand identity.  Partnerships with national teams (Chinese synchronized swimming team and the national team) promote healthy lifestyles.  In 2024, a product launch event, "Light of the Nation, Shining in Paris," featured the Chinese national team and Mao Geping.

2.3 Talent Development: Makeup Academies Cultivate Talent and Amplify Brand Reach

Mao Geping's unique makeup artistry training program has established Mao Geping Makeup School as one of the largest makeup artistry training institutions in China.  Established in Hangzhou in 2000, the school has expanded to major cities across China.  As of June 2024, it had 194 instructors and over 3,539 students across nine major cities, becoming one of China's largest makeup artistry training institutions based on 2022 participant numbers.

(1) Talent Development and Brand Promotion:  The school uses Mao Geping brand products, fostering familiarity and enhancing product recognition among students, who are more likely to become customers and promote the brand through word-of-mouth.  Graduates work in diverse fields (film, fashion, design, weddings, photography, media, blogging, retail), promoting the brand's aesthetic.  Selected graduates may become company employees, instructors, or beauty consultants, supporting the company's growth. Some graduates have become influential beauty bloggers, organically promoting the brand on platforms like Douyin.

(2) R&D Enhancement:  Makeup training provides insights into market trends and customer feedback, improving the company's understanding of consumer preferences and needs, leading to product improvements and new product development.

Similar to Mao Geping Makeup School, L'Oréal's professional hairdressing academy contributes to consumer education and brand building.  In January 2024, L'Oréal opened a professional hairdressing academy in Paris, offering a bachelor's degree in hairdressing and entrepreneurship.  The curriculum focuses on hairdressing techniques, management, customer care, and digital skills.  It collaborates with Schoolab, offering opportunities to participate in customer experience innovation projects.

Globally and in China, professional makeup brands have experienced steady market share growth in recent years, with major cosmetics groups actively acquiring these brands.  Euromonitor data shows that the market share of seven major professional makeup brands in China grew from 6% in 2014 to 14% in 2023, while the market share of thirteen global professional makeup brands increased from 7.6% to 10.8% during the same period.  These brands' strong foundations attract major cosmetics groups.  L'Oréal acquired Shu Uemura (2000) and Urban Decay (2012), Shiseido acquired Laura Mercier (2016), Estée Lauder acquired Bobbi Brown (1995), and Puig acquired Charlotte Tilbury (2020).  International cosmetics groups leverage their existing marketing and distribution resources to support professional makeup brands' global expansion and navigate market cycles.